2006:

The End of Southern Exceptionalism: Class, Race, and Partisan Change in the Postwar South. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2006. With Byron E. Shafer.

Social Capital, Diversity, and the Welfare State. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press, 2006. With Fiona Kay.

“Party Identification: Unmoved Mover or Sum of Preferences?” Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 329-51.

“The Study of Political Campaigns,” in Henry E. Brady and Richard Johnston, eds. Capturing Campaign Effects. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2006, pp. 1-26. With Henry E. Brady and John Sides.

“The Rolling Cross-Section and Causal Attribution,” in ibid., pp. 164-95. With Henry E. Brady.

“Strategic Learning in Campaigns with Proportional Representation: Evidence from New Zealand,” in ibid., pp. 280-304. With Jack Vowles.

“Immigration and Redistribution in a Global Era,” in Globalization and Egalitarian Redistribution, edited by Pranab Bardhan, Sam Bowles, and Michael Wallerstein.
Princeton University Press and Russell Sage Foundation, 2006, pp. 262-88. With Stuart Soroka and Keith Banting.

“Introduction,” in Social Capital, Diversity, and the Welfare State, edited by Fiona Kay and Richard Johnston. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2006, pp. 1-12. With Fiona Kay.

“Social Capital: Ubiquity of the Concept and Contrasts among Disciplines,” in ibid., pp. 17-40. With Fiona Kay.

“Measuring and Modelling Interpersonal Trust,” in ibid., pp. 95-132. With Stuart Soroka and John Helliwell.

“Ethnicity, Trust, and the Welfare State,” in ibid., pp. 279-304. With Stuart Soroka and Keith Banting.

“Do Multiculturalism Policies Erode the Welfare State? An Empirical Analysis,” in Multiculturalism and the Welfare State: Recognition and Redistribution in Contemporary Democracies, edited by Keith Banting and Will Kymlicka, pp.49-91. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006. With Keith Banting, Will Kymlicka, and Stuart Soroka.

2007:

“Campaign Trial Heats as Election Forecasts: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian Elections.” Electoral Studies 26 (June 2007): 477-91. With Mark Pickup.

“Turnout and the Party System in Canada, 1988-2004.” Electoral Studies, 26 (December 2007): 735-45. With J. Scott Matthews and Amanda J. Bittner.

“Ties that Bind? Social Cohesion and Diversity in Canada,” in Belonging? Diversity, Recognition and Shared Citizenship in Canada, edited by Keith Banting, Thomas J. Courchene, and F. Leslie Seidle. Montréal: IRPP, 2007, pp. 561-600. With Keith Banting and Stuart Soroka.

2008:

“When Does Diversity Erode Trust? Neighborhood Diversity, Interpersonal Trust and the Mediating Effect of Social Interactions.” Political Studies: 56 (March 2008): 57–75. With Stuart Soroka and Dietlind Stolle.

“Measurement Error and House Bias in 2004 Presidential Campaign Polls.” International Journal of Forecasting. 24 (2008): 272-84. With Mark Pickup.

“The 2008 National Annenberg Election Study: New Departures in Panel and Mode,” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Policy. 18 (2008): 401-412.

“Polarized Pluralism in the Canadian Party System.” Canadian Journal of Political Science. 41 (December 2008): 815-834.

“Deliberation, Information, and Trust: The BC Citizens’ Assembly as Agenda Setter,” in Designing Democratic Renewal, edited by Mark E. Warren and Hilary Pearse. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2008, pp. 166-91. With Fred Cutler, André Blais, Patrick Fournier, and R. Kenneth Carty.

“Survey Methodology,” in Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier, eds. Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, Oxford University Press, 2008, pp. 385-403.

2009:

“Canada: The Puzzle of Local Three-Party Competition.” In Bernard Grofman, André Blais, and Shaun Bowler, eds. Duverger’s Law of Plurality Voting: The Logic of Party Competition in Canada, India, the United Kingdom and the United States. New York: Springer, 2009, pp. 83-96. With Fred Cutler.

“Regulating Campaign Finance in Canadian Referendums and Initiatives.” In Simon Hug and Karin Gilland Lutz, eds. Financing Referendum Campaigns. London: Palgrave, pp. 23-38.

“Political Parties and the Electoral System.” In John Courtney and David Smith, eds. Oxford Handbook of Canadian Politics Oxford: Oxford University Press.

2010:

“The Campaign Dynamics of Economic Voting.” Electoral Studies, 29(March 2010): 13-24. With J. Scott Matthews.

“The Economy and the Dynamics of the 2008 Presidential Campaign: Evidence from the National Annenberg Election Study.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Policy 18: 271-89. With Emily Thorson and Andrew Gooch.

“National Identity and Support for the Welfare State.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 43: 349-377. With Keith Banting, Stuart Soroka, and Will Kymlicka.

Works in progress

National Annenberg Election Study:

As Research Director of the NAES, I am still involved in getting the data out to the research community. We expect to have data sets and documentation available for download by autumn 2010. Meanwhile, 2000 and 2004 data are accessible at the NAES website.

Here is a paper that Emily Thorson and I presented at the 2009 Midwest Political Science Association conference. This paper has drawn attention in the blogosphere: on The Monkey Cage (April 5th) and July 10th), in the Washington Post, and on The Atlantic’s “Daily Dish.” See also our comment on Andrew Gelman and John Sides in the Boston Review.
A more elaborate account, extended to include the impact of candidates on the Republican and Democratic tickets with special emphasis on the role of Sarah Palin can be found here. This paper was given at the 2009 APSA meeting.

Canadian Elections:

“Structural Bases of Canadian Party Preference: Evolution and Cross-National Comparison,” and “The Past and Future of Canadian Election Studies” (with André Blais), under consideration at UBC Press as part of Mebs Kanji, Antoine Bilodeau, and Thomas Scotto, eds., Four Decades of Canadian Election Studies: Learning from the Past and Planning for the Future.

“Popular Foundations of Divided Government in Canada,” with Fred Cutler, an account of dynamic links between federal and provincial elections.
The Canadian Party System: An Analytic History (working title), book manuscript in preparation.

I am also part of a group led by Banting and John Myles looking at recent increases in income inequality in Canada. My first crack at the electoral foundations of recent shifts is here.

US Elections:

My collaboration with Byron Shafer on the postwar evolution of Southern politics has gone national, so to speak. We are embarked on a long-term project examining the structural foundation of the US party system. Some of this is based on aspects of social structure, including class, race, religion, and geography. Some of this is attitudinal. Most of the work is based on ANES cumulative data sets but for more recent years we also use NAES and CCES data. We argue that the long perspective reveals patterns that seem to have been passed by controversies focused on polarization, sorting, and the like. At the same time, we are struck by how much election-specific variation (commonly on top of the long-term trends) we also see. For our first venture in this direction and something of a statement of intent, see our 2008 APSA paper here.

Highlights:

•  Co-editor of Strengthening Canadian Democracy, of Capturing Campaign Effects, and Social Capital, Diversity, and the Welfare State.
• Articles in CJPS, AJPS, BJPolS, JOP, Electoral Studies, and other journals, and chapters in numerous edited volumes.
• Winner of four APSA organized-section best paper prizes and three book prizes.
• Principal investigator of the 1988 and 1992-93 Canadian Election Surveys.
• He was co-investigator and director of survey, “Equality, Security, and Community,” Major Collaborative Research Initiative, 1998-2003.
• Research director of the National Annenberg Election Study at the University of Pennsylvania, 2000-1 and 2006-9.
• Consultant, 1996 New Zealand Election Study
• Advisory Board member, 2001, 2005, and 2010 British Election Studies.
• Planning Committee, 1998 US National Election Study Pilot.
• Marie Curie research Fellow, European University Institute, and Visiting Scientist on ELECDEM, a collaborative venture for training young scholars in the area of elections and democracy.